No more chocolate by 2050? Several articles have pointed recently that we are heading to a major chocolate crisis.
Consumption is mainly driven by perceived health benefits such as anti-aging, antioxidant effects, stress relieve, blood pressure regulation and others.
So where are the biggest chocoholics located? Traditionally, more than half of all chocolate produced is eaten in Western Europe and North America. Country with the “sweetest tooth” in the world is Switzerland, with more than 8kg per capita of chocolate consumed in 2017.
Rapid urbanization, growing middle class and changing consumer tastes have triggered increasing appetite for chocolate. But things are changing as new trends like “coffee culture” emerge, affecting ways chocolate is used and consumed.
Yet chocolate producers are struggling.
Endangered Chocolate Production
Yet chocolate producers are struggling. Cocoa, the delicate plant behind chocolate needs humid tropical climates and shades of rainforests, which limits areas where you can grow it. Leading regions are found in West Africa, with Ivory Coast and Ghana alone contributing to more than 50% of the entire world’s production.
However, as a result of global warming, cocoa cultivation in these areas is expected to literally move uphill to maintain optimal growing conditions. The challenge remains in the limited areas of land available, as many of these locations are currently banned from cultivation or might not be suitable for it.
Contagion and Alternative products
Enemies of cocoa trees come in different shapes and sizes, two being disease and pests. Estimates indicate that these nuisances cause yearly losses of 30% to 40% of the total global cocoa production.
In June of this year, Ivory Coast announced it will have to take out an entire cocoa plantation of 100,000 hectares contaminated by swollen-shoot plant virus to stop it from spreading further. It will take at least five years before the area can be it replanted again.
As a result of “natural” hazards coupled with price fluctuations, cocoa farmers consider switching to alternatives potentially more profitable and easier to produce.
Indonesia, the world’s third largest cocoa producer, experienced declining cocoa output since 2010 due to poor weather and ageing cocoa trees. Consequently, some farmers shifted production to crops such as corn, rubber or palm oil.
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