5 key events that will drive the markets from here on

After a knee-jerk reaction to the surgical strike by India across the Line of Control (LoC) that saw the S&P BSE Sensex tumble over 500 points in intra-day deals on Thursday, the markets remained on the edge on Friday. The S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty 50 indices lost ground after opening on a flat note.

Analysts expect markets to remain choppy as investors adopt a wait-and-watch mode over the next few sessions till there is more clarity on the geopolitical situation.

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Besides the second quarter results of India Inc, here are 5 key factors that will determine the market direction over the next couple of months.

Clarity on the geopolitical situation...

RBI Monetary Policy review...

US Presidential Election...

Rate hike by the US Fed...

Oil Prices...

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Behind Pakistan's military confidence: China's growing shadow

Until five years ago, the USA and China shared an almost equal proportion of Pakistan’s arms imports: 39% and 38% respectively. Today, China supplies 63% of Pakistan’s armaments, with the USA dropping to 19% and second place, an India Spend analysis reveals, as Pakistan mulls a response to India’s strike on terror camps across the border.

China’s rise to becoming the world’s third-largest arms exporter was to a large degree helped by heightened demand from Pakistan, which now buys 35% of these exports and is Beijing’s biggest buyer (Bangladesh follows at 20%), according to this February 2016 report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

The military supplies are bolstered by unwavering support at a time of heightened tension with India and faltering ties with the US (there was a 73% drop in US security aid over four years to 2015,The Wire reported in August 2016; the US also cancelled the subsidised sale of eight F-16 fighter jets).

 

Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Link 1 & Link 2

Last month, Pakistan’s ministry of defence production confirmed a contract with China for the purchase of eight conventional diesel-electric submarines, which will cost between $4 billion to $5 billion (Rs. 25,600 crore to Rs. 33,200 crore), China’s biggest defence export deal.

From 2011 to 2015, China sold $8.4 billion worth of arms, overtaking long-established arms exporters France ($8 billion) and Germany ($6.7 billion), although it still lags the leaders: the US ($47 billion) and Russia ($36.2 billion).

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Figures in million US$ at constant 1990 prices

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