Showing posts with label DGMO. Show all posts
Showing posts with label DGMO. Show all posts

Friday, 30 September 2016

The global cost of India-Pakistan nuclear war

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If India and Pakistan fought a war detonating 100 nuclear warheads (around half of their combined arsenal), each equivalent to a 15-kiloton Hiroshima bomb, more than 21 million people will be directly killed, about half the world’s protective ozone layer would be destroyed, and a “nuclear winter” would cripple the monsoons and agriculture worldwide.
As the Indian Army reports striking terrorist camps across the border, and a member of Parliament (MP) of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) urges a nuclear attack and the Pakistan defence minister threatens to “annihilate”India in return, these projections, made by researchers from three US universities in 2007, are a reminder of the costs of nuclear war.

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Visualisation by nucleardarkness.org based on study by researchers from Rutgers University, University of Colorado-Boulder and University of California, Los Angeles
BJP Rajya Sabha MP Subramanian Swamy said, on 23 September, 2016, that if 100 million Indians died in a Pakistani nuclear attack, India’s retaliation would wipe out Pakistan.

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Source: Pakistani Nuclear Forces, 2015; Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

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Source: Indian Nuclear Forces, 2015; Bulletin of Atomic Scientists
Agni III, IV and V, with their longer ranges, might be able to reach all of Pakistan, but it can be safely said that they are directed more towards China.
India also possesses an estimated two ship-launched 350-km range Dhanush SRBM, which could be fitted with nuclear warheads.
India’s aircraft can deliver an estimated 45% of 106 warheads. The Indian Air Force’s Jaguar fighter bombers can deliver about 16 nuclear warheads, while the French-built Mirage-2000 fleet can deliver 32.

India strikes across LoC; What are Pakistan's options?

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India undertook surgical strikes across the Line of Control, breaching self-imposed military discipline, destroying infrastructure as well as killing terrorists who were poised to cross the border and damage Indian cities and Jammu and Kashmir.

This is bound to invite retaliation, both from Pakistan as well as the rest of world, which will now begin scrambling to plead India to continue its policy of strategic restraint.

The Director General Military Operations (DGMO) used the hotline to contact his counterpart in Pakistan. This is scrupulous observation of protocol – that is exactly what the hotline is for.

The first such interaction is likely on 6 October when Finance Minister Arun Jaitley and Pakistan Finance Minister Ishaq Dar head out to attend the World Bank meeting in the US.

But before that, how will Pakistan respond? That’s what needs to be seen.




1) An unpredictable actor comes into play - a suicide bomber takes it into his head to blow himself up in a crowded place, a Paris type event - which will be the equivalent of tossing a cracker into a crowd and could have unforeseen consequences. 

2) Pakistan retaliates and India hits back, gradually escalating into full scale confrontation.

3)The international community steps in and talks both Pakistan and India out of it. The UNSC holds a meeting and peacemakers step in.

The third scenario is the most likely but the first and second cannot be ruled out.



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Monday, 19 September 2016

17 soldiers killed, 23 injured in cross-LoC strike on Uri camp

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In a jarring challenge to the army in Jammu & Kashmir(J&K), armed militants attacked a camp near the border town of Uri on Sunday morning, killing 17 soldiers and wounding another 23. This is the heaviest blow the army has suffered in a single attack since armed insurgency broke out in J&K in 1990.

Lt Gen Ranbir Singh, the army’s Director General of Military Operations (DGMO), described the events in a media statement. He said a group of Pakistani terrorists attacked the camp at 5.30 am and four were killed by 8.30 am. It remains unclear whether there were more. Explaining the heavy army casualties, the DGMO said: “The terrorists fired incendiary ammunition, along with automatic fire of small arms that led to army tents [and] temporary shelters catching fire… There have been a total of 17 army fatal casualties. Of these, 13-14 casualties have been due to these tents/shelters having caught fire.”
The administrative echelons of two infantry battalions — 10 DOGRA and 6 BIHAR — were in the camp. Their combat echelons had deployed in forward posts along the line of control (LoC), leaving the camp lightly guarded.

Even so, the attack raises serious questions of operational culpability. An infantry battalion’s administrative echelons should also consist of armed and trained soldiers, who should not have been caught napping by a read full story

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