The global cost of India-Pakistan nuclear war

If India and Pakistan fought a war detonating 100 nuclear warheads (around half of their combined arsenal), each equivalent to a 15-kiloton Hiroshima bomb, more than 21 million people will be directly killed, about half the world’s protective ozone layer would be destroyed, and a “nuclear winter” would cripple the monsoons and agriculture worldwide.

As the Indian Army reports striking terrorist camps across the border, and a member of Parliament (MP) of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) urges a nuclear attack and the Pakistan defence minister threatens to “annihilate”India in return, these projections, made by researchers from three US universities in 2007, are a reminder of the costs of nuclear war.

Visualisation by nucleardarkness.org based on study by researchers from Rutgers University, University of Colorado-Boulder and University of California, Los Angeles

BJP Rajya Sabha MP Subramanian Swamy said, on 23 September, 2016, that if 100 million Indians died in a Pakistani nuclear attack, India’s retaliation would wipe out Pakistan.

Source: Pakistani Nuclear Forces, 2015; Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Source: Indian Nuclear Forces, 2015; Bulletin of Atomic Scientists

Agni III, IV and V, with their longer ranges, might be able to reach all of Pakistan, but it can be safely said that they are directed more towards China.

India also possesses an estimated two ship-launched 350-km range Dhanush SRBM, which could be fitted with nuclear warheads.

India’s aircraft can deliver an estimated 45% of 106 warheads. The Indian Air Force’s Jaguar fighter bombers can deliver about 16 nuclear warheads, while the French-built Mirage-2000 fleet can deliver 32.

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India strikes across LoC; What are Pakistan's options?

India undertook surgical strikes across the Line of Control, breaching self-imposed military discipline, destroying infrastructure as well as killing terrorists who were poised to cross the border and damage Indian cities and Jammu and Kashmir.

This is bound to invite retaliation, both from Pakistan as well as the rest of world, which will now begin scrambling to plead India to continue its policy of strategic restraint.

The Director General Military Operations (DGMO) used the hotline to contact his counterpart in Pakistan. This is scrupulous observation of protocol – that is exactly what the hotline is for.

The first such interaction is likely on 6 October when Finance Minister Arun Jaitley and Pakistan Finance Minister Ishaq Dar head out to attend the World Bank meeting in the US.

But before that, how will Pakistan respond? That’s what needs to be seen.

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We are in a place where three scenarios are possible: 

1) An unpredictable actor comes into play - a suicide bomber takes it into his head to blow himself up in a crowded place, a Paris type event - which will be the equivalent of tossing a cracker into a crowd and could have unforeseen consequences. 

2) Pakistan retaliates and India hits back, gradually escalating into full scale confrontation.

3)The international community steps in and talks both Pakistan and India out of it. The UNSC holds a meeting and peacemakers step in.

The third scenario is the most likely but the first and second cannot be ruled out.

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Captured soldier inadvertently crossed LoC, report of soldiers killed false: Army

The Indian Army on Thursday said that one of its soldiers from the 37 Rashtriya Rifles (RR), along with his standard weapon, had inadvertently crossed over to the other side of the Line of Control (LoC) and termed as "completely false and baseless" reports in Pakistani media that eight of its soldiers had been killed.

An army release issued by the Defence Ministry said that Pakistan had been informed on the hotline by the Director General Military Operations Lt Gen Ranbir Singh about the soldier crossing over the LoC.

It said that such inadvertent crossing by army personnel and civilians was not unusual on either side and they are are returned through existing mechanisms.

"One soldier from 37 RR with weapon has inadvertently crossed over to the other side of the Line of Control. Pakistan has been informed by the DGMO on the hotline. Such inadvertent crossing by Army and civilians are not unusual on either side. They are returned through existing mechanisms," the release said.

"As regard report of killing of eight Indian Army personnel reported in sections of Pakistan media, the report is completely false and baseless," the release added.

Dawn had quoted security sources as saying that Pakistan military had said it had captured an Indian soldier and killed eight others. Dawn later withdrew the story, replacing it with another that did not specify the number of Indian soldiers killed.

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Surgical strikes: How the world conducts them and how India did it

Indian armed forces conducted surgical strikes in the early hours of Thursday across the Line of Control (LoC), involving not more than 100 commandos, in what is seen as a paradigm shift in how this government plans to deal with terrorist camps across the border.

The term "surgical strike" has been prevalent in the international media since the days of the Gulf War, and it came to typify operations conducted by the US thereafter.

Going by the generally accepted definition offered by experts, a surgical strike comprises a swift, intelligence-driven attack on a specific target or targets with minimum collateral damage to structures, infrastructure or civilians in the target's vicinity.

The operation can involve special forces units on the ground, strikes conducted by military aircraft or vessels.

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How India conducted its strikes

How the big hitters do it

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The US and Russia, with varying degrees of success, have been conducting surgical strikes in Syria for some time now, hitting extremists and ISIS targets with PGMs. 

The US in particular has been using its armed drones for targeting specific leaders of various terrorist organisations, especially the al-Qaeda; however, given reports of numerous civilian casualties attached to such strikes, the claims that such operations are surgical strikes have rung hollow for countries like Pakistan and Afghanistan. 

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