Neighbourhood watch: Why Pakistan is obsessed with Kashmir

In my experience, proffering the idea that Pakistan should abandon its quest for Kashmir is generally rewarded with condescension. Tell self-styled foreign policy experts of this hair-brained scheme, and you are met with the rhetorical equivalent of a patronising pat on the shoulder; one is not considered anti-national so much as naive, not unpatriotic but unserious.

In the real world of power politics, these strategic gurus tell us woolly-headed fools, states do not abandon their national interests, they fight for them — by hook or crook. Pakistan is no different. In this view, Kashmir is a vital symbolic and strategic interest, tied to both Pakistan’s foundational religious nationalism as well as its geopolitical goals. As such, it needs to continue the political, diplomatic, and yes, military struggle for Kashmir, no different to how big and small countries have fought for their interests for centuries. It’s Realism 101, kid.

Without getting mired in the intricacies of Realist theory, it is worth considering, from a realpolitik perspective, just how sensible Pakistan’s longstanding desire for Kashmir is. The costs of Pakistan’s existing strategy in Kashmir are well known and do not require extensive elaboration. On the security front, it has bred terrorism which has claimed over 50,000 citizens since 9/11. Politically, it has helped cement the army’s hold over the country, hindering the development of representative institutions.

Pakistan’s economy has suffered due to this. Extremism and militant violence affect domestic and foreign investment, while the military’s dominance in politics ensures crowding out of spending on public goods, such as education, in favour of plots and pensions for generals. Finally, insofar as diplomacy is concerned, Pakistan’s revisionism leads to isolation and opprobrium, even from its friends. In contrast to these substantial costs, the tangible gains to Pakistan of its Kashmir strategy are difficult to locate: the territorial status-quo in Kashmir has not significantly changed in close to seven decades, despite repeated attempts. For a strategy pushed by so-called realists, such a balance of costs and benefits is  read full story