Assembly polls 2017: 12 reasons why fight in UP is between the BSP and BJP

This was a closely fought triangular contest, and the likeliest outcome is a hung assembly

 

Election Results 2017 : While we are headed towards a hung assembly, the competition is largely between the BSP and BJP. The SP-Congress alliance has struggled to keep up. The BJP and BSP have been much more successful in terms of castes and communities they were wooing. Let me explain.

1. The BSP has been successful in consolidating the Dalit community. Even non-Jatav Dalits have by and large consolidated in favour of the BSP. Fractures (mainly among Pasis and Khatiks) in favour of the BJP are far and few. In which case, the BSP starts with a robust 20% votes.

2. The BSP has been the most organised and disciplined party in this election, with the least amount of infighting. Moreover, having declared their candidates the first, their candidates were better prepared and began their campaign earlier than others.

3. Sections of non-Yadav OBC’s seem to have been consolidated in favour of the BJP. However, large sections like Jats in west UP and Nishads in east UP have broken away, in favour of the Rashtriya Lok Dal and the Nishad party respectively.

4. Sections of non-Yadav OBC’s seem to have been consolidated in favour of the BJP. However, large sections like Jats in west UP and Nishads in east UP have broken away, in favour of the Rashtriya Lok Dal and the Nishad party respectively.

5. Attempts at polarising the election towards the last couple of phases seem to have had a limited impact in favour of the BJP. My hunch is that it’s only helped consolidate the traditional ‘upper’ caste in their favour, and that too not on all seats.(read more...)