Tuesday 6 June 2017

Gulf-Qatar rift: What it means for India and the global oil market

Indian market is one where all oil producers would want to be involved, and especially Saudi Arabia

 Saudi Arabia.jpg
 
Business News - To get a sense of some of the developments about Qatar look at this piece of statistic plus a bit of news. According to the US Energy Information Administration, production of shale oil in USA is expected to reach 5.4 million barrels a day in June, its highest level in more than a year. The recovery outpaces estimates for every most month since August last year. The piece of news is the fast expanding relationship of Qatar with India.

Shale has put American capital and labour to work, a huge domestic political dividend, after price of crude oil from Opec nations soared past $49 a barrel since the 14-member countries agreed since November 2016 on a production cut. In this environment, the US juice can begin to sell at about $47 a barrel, given its lower quality but enough to bring more and more of its onshore fields into production. 

It is vital for the the Trump administration to ensure that Opec keeps its production capped. Opec can keep it capped if Iran does not open the tap of its vast reservoir too much and that means both USA and Saudi Arabia should be on the same side of the field. The Saudis can ensure their diktat runs with two of the large oil producers—UAE and Kuwait, both of whose royal families are blood relations of Riyadh. But Qatar isn’t, even though its royal family too hails from the same desert. 

And Qatar’s rise is linked to its suddenly deepening relationship with India. There are reasons for it. The first of those is natural gas which Qatar like Iran has plenty of but Saudi Arabia doesn't have much of. And countries like India wanting to use their growing economic clout want the gas to flow. There are no Opec-like restrictions on gas prices and it is cheaper. So, if Qatar plays around with its gas reserves and along with Iran dominating its market, there are enough reasons to make the Saudis worried about their politico-economic hegemony getting cut and the USA worried about its domestic recovery.
 
Qatar in the past three years has become almost a strategic ally for India. The Qatar government has offered to fill up India’s strategic reserves for free in exchange for buying its natural gas and easier access for Doha’s capital into the Indian economy. One of those is the one its kind permission given to Qatar Airways to fly as a domestic airline in India.
(read more...)

No comments:

Post a Comment